Statistics on the 2014-2015 West Africa ebola outbreak

compiled by Wm. Robert Johnston
last updated 4 July 2015

Introduction: Data presented here are primarily compiled from World Health Organization bulletins/releases, supplemented by reports from the health agencies of Liberia and Sierra Leone and other sources listed below. Cases include both unconfirmed as well as laboratory confirmed cases. This is done in part due to the fact that lab testing could not keep pace with the peak of the outbreak in the worst hit countries. Statistics are believed to be incomplete. Significant revisions, both upward and downward, in reported figures in late October reflect reporting problems: total reported cases were revised upward 34% from the 25 Oct report to the 29 Oct report, reflecting a backlog of statistics over many prior weeks, and some totals (both cases and deaths) were subsequently revised downward reflecting changed conclusions for many cases as to whether ebola was involved.

Note that the crude death rate (41%) may be deceptively low since the disease has not run its course; some estimates of the ultimate case fatality rate for this outbreak are 65-70%, consistent with prior outbreaks, implying that another 6,000 who have already contracted the disease could die from it. Nevertheless, reported deaths have leveled off. Case fatality rates by country/country group to date are:

The low case fatality rate for the West (all infections occurring in Africa but detected after travel to the West) reflects what is attainable with greater health care resources and low case numbers. The differences among hotspot countries may be differences in case or differences in accuracy of case assessment (i.e. assessing ebola in cases where lab confirmation was not possible).

Monthly growth rates in reported cases and deaths in the hotspot countries (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) have dropped to 1-10% for the last five months. Health officials are increasingly optimistic that the epidemic is contained. A final confirmed case in Liberia was in late March 2015, and some time after this Liberia was declared ebola free. However, several new cases were confirmed in Liberia in early July 2015. Even with the worst of this outbreak now past, this outbreak has been devastating to the health care profession and social structures in the hotspot countries and the consequences will be long lasting.

Table 1: Ebola cases and fatalities by country and date, monthly summary

datetotalGuineaLiberiaSierra LeoneNigeriaSenegalUnited StatesSpainMaliUnited KingdomItaly
casesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeaths
1 Mar 2014                      
1 Apr 20141278312783                  
1 May 201424216022614913113               
1 Jun 20144192253282081211796              
1 Jul 20147594674133031076523999              
1 Aug 20141,60388748535846825564627341            
1 Sep 20143,7071,8487714941,6988711,21647621710          
1 Oct 20147,4923,4391,1997393,8342,0692,4376232081010        
1 Nov 201413,5674,9511,6671,0186,5352,4135,3381,51020810411011    
1 Dec 201416,8756,0702,1641,3277,3653,1457,3121,58320810411086    
1 Jan 201520,2067,9042,7071,7088,0183,4239,4462,7582081041108610  
1 Feb 201522,4958,9812,9751,9448,7453,74610,7403,2762081041108610  
1 Mar 201523,9699,8073,2192,1299,2494,11711,4663,5462081041108610  
1 Apr 201525,21310,4603,4922,3149,7124,33211,9743,7992081041108610  
1 May 201526,31210,8993,5842,37710,3224,60812,3713,8992081041108610  
1 Jun 201527,18111,1623,6522,42910,6664,80612,3713,899208104110861010
1 Jun 201527,55011,2353,7292,48210,6664,80613,1193,932208104110861010
3 Jul 201527,56011,2363,7292,48210,6694,80713,1263,932208104110861010

Table 2: Ebola cases and fatalities by country and date
Cases below included both confirmed and unconfirmed cases, consequently figures may occasionally be revised downward. Data are from World Health Organization bulletins, with supplementary data from media reports (entries with no bulletin date given).

bulletin
date
data
date
totalGuineaLiberiaSierra LeoneNigeriaSenegalUnited StatesSpainMaliUnited KingdomItaly
casesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeaths
23 Mar 201422 Mar 201449294929                  
24 Mar 201424 Mar 201486598659                  
25 Mar 201425 Mar 201486608660                  
26 Mar 201426 Mar 201486628662                  
27 Mar 201427 Mar 20141036610366                  
30 Mar 201428 Mar 20141127011270                  
1 Apr 201431 Mar 20141228012280                  
2 Apr 2014 1 Apr 20141278312783                  
5 Apr 2014 4 Apr 20141438614386                  
7 Apr 2014 7 Apr 20141519515195                  
10 Apr 2014 9 Apr 20141631011581015                 
14 Apr 201414 Apr 20141741081681086                 
17 Apr 201416 Apr 20142031221971226                 
19 Apr 201417 Apr 20142091292031296                 
22 Apr 201420 Apr 2014219142208136863               
25 Apr 201423 Apr 2014229147218141863               
28 Apr 201426 Apr 2014235149224143863               
2 May 2014 1 May 201424216022614913113               
6 May 2014 3 May 201424716623115513113               
8 May 2014 5 May 201425116823515713113               
9 May 2014 7 May 201425216923615813113               
12 May 201410 May 201424816823315712113               
15 May 201412 May 201426318224817112113               
24 May 201423 May 201427318525817412113               
28 May 201427 May 20143092022811861211165              
30 May 201428 May 20143532102911931211506              
4 Jun 2014 1 Jun 20144192253282081211796              
6 Jun 2014 3 Jun 20144372323442151211816              
10 Jun 2014 5 Jun 20144522443512261211897              
18 Jun 201417 Jun 201452833739826433249749              
22 Jun 201418 Jun 2014567350390267412513658              
24 Jun 201422 Jun 2014599338390270513415834              
1 Jul 201430 Jun 20147594674133031076523999              
3 Jul 2014 2 Jul 201477948141230511575252101              
8 Jul 2014 6 Jul 201484451840830713184305127              
10 Jul 2014 8 Jul 201488853940930914288337142              
15 Jul 201412 Jul 2014964603406304172105386194              
17 Jul 201414 Jul 2014982613411310174106397197              
19 Jul 201417 Jul 20141,048632410310196116442206              
24 Jul 201420 Jul 20141,093660415314224127454219              
27 Jul 201423 Jul 20141,201672427319249129525224              
31 Jul 201427 Jul 20141,32372946033932915653323311            
4 Aug 2014 1 Aug 20141,60388748535846825564627341            
6 Aug 2014 4 Aug 20141,71193249536351628269128691            
8 Aug 2014 6 Aug 20141,779961495367554294717298132            
11 Aug 2014 9 Aug 20141,8481,013506373599323730315132            
13 Aug 201411 Aug 20141,9751,069510377670355783334123            
15 Aug 201413 Aug 20142,1271,145519380786413810348124            
19 Aug 201416 Aug 20142,2521,244543394846481848365154            
20 Aug 201418 Aug 20142,4731,350579396972576907374154            
22 Aug 201420 Aug 20142,6151,4276074061,082624910392165            
29 Aug 201426 Aug 20143,0711,5536484301,3786941,026422197            
4 Sep 201431 Aug 20143,7071,8487714941,6988711,21647621710          
5 Sep 2014 5 Sep 20143,9672,1058125171,8711,0891,26149122810          
8 Sep 2014 6 Sep 20144,2912,2968625552,0461,2241,36150921810          
12 Sep 2014 7 Sep 20144,3882,2268615572,0811,1371,42452421810          
16 Sep 201413 Sep 20144,9852,4619365952,4071,2961,62056221810          
18 Sep 201414 Sep 20145,3472,6309426012,7101,4591,67356221810          
22 Sep 201420 Sep 20145,8642,8111,0086323,0221,5781,81359320810          
24 Sep 201421 Sep 20146,2632,9171,0226353,2801,6771,94059720810          
26 Sep 201423 Sep 20146,5743,0911,0746483,4581,8302,02160520810          
1 Oct 201428 Sep 20147,1783,3381,1577103,6961,9982,30462220810          
3 Oct 2014 1 Oct 20147,4923,4391,1997393,8342,0692,4376232081010        
8 Oct 2014 5 Oct 20148,0333,8651,2987683,9242,2102,7898792081010        
10 Oct 2014 8 Oct 20148,3994,0331,3507784,0762,3162,950930208101110      
15 Oct 201411 Oct 20148,9974,4931,4728434,2492,4583,2521,183208102110      
17 Oct 201414 Oct 20149,2164,5551,5198624,2622,4843,4101,200208103110      
22 Oct 201419 Oct 20149,9364,8771,5409044,6652,7053,7061,259208104110      
25 Oct 201423 Oct 201410,2204,9531,5539264,7442,7373,8961,28120810411010    
29 Oct 201427 Oct 201413,7034,9201,9069976,5352,4135,2351,50020810411011    
31 Oct 201429 Oct 201413,5675,1471,6671,0186,5352,6095,3381,51020810411011    
5 Nov 2014 2 Nov 201413,0424,8181,7311,0416,5252,6974,7591,07020810411011    
7 Nov 2014 4 Nov 201413,2684,9601,7601,0546,6192,7664,8621,13020810411011    
12 Nov 2014 9 Nov 201414,0985,1601,8781,1426,8222,8365,3681,16920810411044    
14 Nov 201411 Nov 201414,4135,1771,9191,1666,8782,8125,5861,18720810411043    
19 Nov 201416 Nov 201415,1455,4201,9711,1927,0692,9646,0731,25020810411065    
21 Nov 201418 Nov 201415,3515,4592,0471,2147,0822,9636,1901,26720810411066    
26 Nov 201423 Nov 201415,9355,6892,1341,2607,1683,0166,5991,39820810411086    
3 Dec 201430 Nov 201416,8756,0702,1641,3277,3653,1457,3121,58320810411086    
10 Dec 2014 7 Dec 201417,9426,3882,2921,4287,7193,1777,8971,76820810411086    
17 Dec 201414 Dec 201418,6036,9152,4161,5257,7973,2908,3562,08520810411086    
24 Dec 201421 Dec 201419,4977,5882,5971,6077,8623,3849,0042,58220810411086    
31 Dec 201428 Dec 201420,2067,9042,7071,7088,0183,4239,4462,7582081041108610  
7 Jan 2015 4 Jan 201520,7478,2352,7751,7818,1573,4969,7802,9432081041108610  
14 Jan 201511 Jan 201521,2968,4292,8061,8148,3313,53810,1243,0622081041108610  
21 Jan 201518 Jan 201521,7248,6412,8711,8768,4783,60510,3403,1452081041108610  
28 Jan 201525 Jan 201522,0928,8102,9171,9108,6223,68610,5183,1992081041108610  
4 Feb 2015 1 Feb 201522,4958,9812,9751,9448,7453,74610,7403,2762081041108610  
11 Feb 2015 8 Feb 201522,8949,1773,0441,9958,8813,82610,9343,3412081041108610  
18 Feb 201515 Feb 201523,2539,3803,1082,0579,0073,90011,1033,4082081041108610  
25 Feb 201522 Feb 201523,7299,6043,1552,0919,2384,03711,3013,4612081041108610  
4 Mar 2015 1 Mar 201523,9699,8073,2192,1299,2494,11711,4663,5462081041108610  
11 Mar 2015 8 Mar 201524,2829,9763,2852,1709,3434,16211,6193,6292081041108610  
18 Mar 201515 Mar 201524,70110,1943,3892,2249,5264,26411,7513,6912081041108610  
25 Mar 201522 Mar 201524,90710,3263,4292,2639,6024,30111,8413,7472081041108610  
1 Apr 201529 Mar 201525,21310,4603,4922,3149,7124,33211,9743,7992081041108610  
8 Apr 2015 5 Apr 201525,55010,5873,5152,3339,8624,40812,1383,8312081041108610  
15 Apr 201512 Apr 201525,82610,7043,5482,34610,0424,48612,2013,8572081041108610  
22 Apr 201519 Apr 201526,07910,8233,5652,35810,2124,57312,2673,8772081041108610  
29 Apr 201526 Apr 201526,31210,8993,5842,37710,3224,60812,3713,8992081041108610  
6 May 2015 3 May 201526,62811,0203,5892,38610,5644,71612,4403,9032081041108610  
13 May 201510 May 201526,75911,0803,5972,39210,6044,76912,5233,9042081041108610  
20 May 201517 May 201526,96911,1353,6352,40710,6664,80612,6323,907208104110861010
27 May 201524 May 201527,04911,1493,6412,42010,6664,80612,7063,908208104110861010
3 Jun 201531 May 201527,18111,1623,6522,42910,6664,80612,8273,912208104110861010
  8 Jun 201527,22111,1683,6692,43510,6664,80612,8503,912208104110861010
17 Jun 201514 Jun 201527,34111,1843,6742,44410,6664,80612,9653,919208104110861010
24 Jun 201521 Jun 201527,47911,2223,7182,47310,6664,80613,0593,928208104110861010
1 Jul 201528 Jun 201527,55011,2353,7292,48210,6664,80613,1193,932208104110861010
  3 Jul 201527,65011,2363,7292,48210,6674,80713,1263,932208104110861010
bulletin
date
data
date
totalGuineaLiberiaSierra LeoneNigeriaSenegalUnited StatesSpainMaliUnited KingdomItaly
casesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeathscasesdeaths

Table 3: Ebola cases and cases per 1,000 residents by west African country and administrative region, to 8 June 2015
Cases below included both confirmed and unconfirmed cases. Full breakdown of some data by region is unavailable. Rates based on 2014 population.

country/region2014 est. pop.casescases/1000 pop
LIBERIA 4,092,00010,6692.61
Bomi 96,000 3303.43
Bong 386,000 7121.85
Gbarpolu 98,000 350.36
Grand Bassa 264,000 1810.69
Grand Cape Mount 151,000 3882.56
Grand Gedeh 148,000 110.07
Grand Kru 67,000 360.54
Lofa 317,000 7242.28
Margibi 234,000 1,3325.69
Maryland 160,000 340.21
Montserrado 1,343,000 5,3974.02
Nimba 549,000 3600.66
River Gee 79,000 370.47
Rivercess 77,000 440.57
Sinoe 123,000 640.52
unknown N/A 984 --
country/region2014 est. pop.casescases/1000 pop
SIERRA LEONE 5,744,00013,1262.28
Bo 535,000 6081.14
Bombali 471,000 1,2582.67
Bonthe 161,000 890.55
Kailahun 413,000 6741.63
Kambia 312,000 4471.43
Kenema 575,000 8071.40
Koinadugu 307,000 2280.74
Kono 387,000 6521.68
Moyamba 301,000 4081.36
Port Loko 524,000 2,1084.03
Pujehun 264,000 890.34
Tonkolili 401,000 6291.57
Western 1,093,000 5,0954.66
    Western Rural 201,000 1,6348.12
    Western Urban 892,000 3,4613.88
unknown N/A 34 --
country/region2014 est. pop.casescases/1000 pop
GUINEA 11,474,000 3,7290.32
Boke 1,167,000 790.07
    Boffa 228,000 360.16
    Boke 485,000 320.07
    Fria 104,000 110.11
    Gaoual 210,000 0 --
    Koundara 141,000 0 --
Conakry 1,801,000 5640.31
Faranah 1,018,000 1540.15
    Dabola 198,000 80.04
    Dinguiraye 211,000 0 --
    Faranah 303,000 460.15
    Kissidougou 306,000 1000.33
Kankan 2,144,000 2350.11
    Kankan 510,000 310.06
    Kerouane 228,000 1600.70
    Kouroussa 290,000 180.06
    Mandiana 367,000 0 --
    Siguiri 751,000 260.03
Kindia 1,683,000 9040.54
    Coyah 285,000 2340.82
    Dubreka 355,000 1430.40
    Forecariah 264,000 4071.54
    Kindia 473,000 800.17
    Telimele 306,000 400.13
Labe 1,075,000 70.007
    Koubia 109,000 0 --
    Labe 344,000 0 --
    Lelouma 176,000 0 --
    Mali 313,000 50.02
    Tougue 133,000 20.01
Mamou 790,000 160.02
    Dalaba 147,000 90.06
    Mamou 344,000 0 --
    Pita 299,000 70.02
N'Zerekore 1,796,000 1,4650.82
    Beyla 351,000 460.13
    Gueckedou 315,000 3731.18
    Lola 189,000 930.49
    Macenta 322,000 7182.23
    N'Zerekore 428,000 2240.52
    Yomou 191,000 110.06
unknown N/A 305 --

Table 4: History of Ebola outbreaks
Cases below included both confirmed and unconfirmed cases. Italicized countries had laboratory-related outbreaks and/or asymptomatic cases only. Some outbreaks extended into a second calendar year; data here is assigned to one year.

yearcasesdeathscase fatality rate (%)countries
197660343171.5Zaire (DR Congo), Sudan (South Sudan), United Kingdom
197711100.0Zaire (DR Congo)
1978none
1979342264.7Sudan (South Sudan)
1980-1989none
1990700.0Philippines, United States
1991none
1992none
1993none
1994533158.5Gabon, Ivory Coast
199531525079.4DR Congo
19961006868.0Gabon, South Africa, Russia
1997none
1998none
1999none
200042522452.7Uganda
20011229678.7Gabon, Rep. Congo
2002none
200317815788.2Rep. Congo
200418844.4Sudan (South Sudan), Russia
2005none
2006none
200741322454.2DR Congo, Uganda
2008600.0Philippines
2009321546.9DR Congo
2010none
201111100.0Uganda
2012532037.7Uganda, DR Congo
2013none
1976-2013 total2,3611,54865.6(29 outbreaks in 11 countries)
2014664974.2DR Congo (separate outbreak)
2014-201527,56011,23640.8West Africa outbreak (10 countries--Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, United States, Spain, Mali, United Kingdom, Italy--see above)

Sources:


© 2014, 2015 by Wm. Robert Johnston.
Last modified 4 July 2015.
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